A week ago 51
economists "surveyed" by the Bloomberg organization got the monthly
jobs "forecast" spectacularly wrong. Off the mark by 50%. Wrong
ballpark.
The U.S. economy added 204,000 jobs in October—the
collective guess of the clueless wonks was 120,000.
Notice I said "guess,"
although Bloomberg called it a "survey" and the (always unnamed) economists
called it a "forecast."
The economists are
always wrong. Their average guess is always wrong. Individually, they're always
wrong.
Why do Bloomberg
and the news media and the cable TV talking heads keep reporting the useless advance
guesses of the 51 guessers who are always wrong?
What's the fascination
with trying to know the number one week or one day or one hour before the official
report, when we all know that it's impossible to reliably forecast it?
Why do we want to
keep fooling ourselves that we know it in advance?
We turn now to a
Bloomberg panel of 51 eminent psychologists and sociologists….
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